FreeAccess Part 3-Timing Market Turns from W. B. Busin Group Publishing

Timing Market Turns - Our models' algorithms produce exact dates for changes of trend direction - days, weeks and months in advance of the turn.

The Crude Oil Picture

Excerpted from the daily subscriber page on June 12, 2008; timing/phasing was updated on subsequent days, but dates have not changed.

0745 EDT

We have clusters of Time Loci for crude oil on July 8th and July 10th. We suspect that the high will likely occur on the 4th of July holiday weekend near the $160 level. The current structure implies that crude is in its 5th of a 5th phase at the cycle level (long term). In a more meaningful daily structure, we believe crude oil is entering its 3rd phase of its 5th and final phase upward. The 1st phase began on June 5th and ended on June 6th, then corrected in the 2nd phase.

So, it is possible in a parabolic run to achieve, in just over 2 weeks, both the price levels (or potentially higher) and the ending contracting diagonal that may develop.

A final comment about the $160-62 level -

We have numerous measurements that produce results at that band of resistance. These same measurement tools produced the target of $92-94 we held for nearly 2 years. That band was expanded to include $97 several weeks later. That band of resistance held for over 3 months, but it was in the middle of a Bull market, not the end of a Bull market. If the $160-62 level is approached/exceeded in the next move, we will expect a push toward $176-79 for the final 5th of the fifth.

There at least two ways for this view to be wrong. The first is for price to stall at $155-57 and then move lateral for a long time. The second way is for the crude market to begin a persistent subdividing process for either the next phase (3rd) or in the final phase (5th). We expect one of the two to subdivide and extend (likely visible on an intraday basis). That would also imply that the final phase could extend a few weeks longer toward early August. For now, we will look for hints of overlap and extension over the next several days.

The good news is that when the market actually tops, we expect the downtrend, or Bear market, to last at least 30 months, that is, Christmas of 2010.

WBB

Update June 27 & 30, 2008 - The focus is still on July 3rd for a high at or near the $155-57. This will likely only complete the 3rd phase upward in the last leg of this bull market for energy unless the 4th phase has ended this week.

June 30 - The lateral 4th phase finally ended and crude broke above the channel to begin the 5th phasing. The ECB announcement on Thursday, July 3rd, may set in the high or ignite the fuse for higher levels. Watching USD, TNX, three crudes, unleaded and natural gas/heating oil (the latter two have better charts).

WBB

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