FreeAccess Part 5-Timing Market Turns from W. B. Busin Group Publishing

Timing Market Turns - Our models' algorithms produce exact dates for changes of trend direction - days, weeks and months in advance of the turn.

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Lower Highs and Lower Lows

We expect a small bounce in the indexes on Monday in the continuing downward intraday trend. We expect a low this week on [date withheld] within the 5th phase down from the March 24th high. The lower high for the bounce is expected to lead to lower lows. It may not test the recent lows this week, but certainly the lows will be tested soon and most likely penetrated.

That penetration of the lows will likely surprise many, but we will be prepared to trade it.

The phasing and formations since the early February high has been difficult to analyse and even more difficult to trade the large volatile 1, 2, and 3 day swings. The exit from the complex lateral corrective and final leg down from the October high has been refreshing as two 4-day movement since the low and reversal on the March 17th.

Perhaps normal index and stock movements will visit the markets more frequently since the Fed's Intervention on the Ides of March Weekend. What will be remembered longer for the historians? Snatching the Bear Stearns barrel as it approached the top of the falls? Or, the Fed slashing Fed Funds and discount rates? Or, opening the Federal Reserve's new financial pawn shop to all of the big brokers and investment bankers?

I believe the Fed and the Chairman will be remembered for stopping the bleeding and loosening the Gordian knot of financial derivatives. The totality of their acts and innovations reflect the lessons history has taught in other financial dilemmas from 1929 forward. The fine points will be dissected for decades, irregardless of future difficulties in this economic cycle.

We believe the banking system would have collapsed in short but violent moves as the news of an investment bank went under. Runs on banks had already occurred in Great Britain. We believed that liquidity had been the need in places without a source. When the Fed opened the doors to all in need beyond what is allowed in their charter, they truly opened the fire hose of liquidity on the frozen illiquid exotic derivatives issuers and holders.

From the long view, the interlaced global financial markets were saved. It has been stated that if Bear had been allowed to fail, the markets would not have opened on Monday, the 17th, and I agree. And the banks would not have opened either or would have closed soon after the news hit the public's senses. I have seen few debacles in my decades, but none like this. None.

I reject the notion that Chairman Bernanke was to blame for the crisis. He was on the FOMC, and he was Chairman at the event. He was not the chef of the toxic CDO's that investors ate at the tables of their hosts, the investment banks. The SEC and other agencies, not the Fed, are charged with supervision and oversight of the non-bank financial institutions. I believe he 'overrode the system' to save a whole world of people who still don't know what they just missed.

I am sure I don't know what I missed either except that I believe it was a potential monstrous devastation.

Tip of the hat to all who did whatever it took to hold back the night. Thanks to Dr. Ben Bernanke.

W. B. Busin

March 29, 2008 1600 EDT

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This information is for educational and informational purposes only. The information and data that we trade on is based in the various levels below. It is for our personal use and is shared with you for solely informational purposes. We will update each Monday morning before the open (Tuesday, if market is closed Monday), Wednesday afternoon before the closing, and Friday midday. We will also inject updates when we see sound trend changes that can be tradable. This is our preferred frequency and will be our basic service that will be available at this website. We will send a few update messages between those as events and action may change our views.

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We are bearish for the short term, intermediate term bearish, and long term bearish, that is, until the market changes our view.

God bless all of you,
W. B. Busin

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